Super Bowl LIII Predictions

Offering some terrible analysis for why the Patriots might lose.

A wild theory on Brady

I love Tom Brady; given my Boston roots, it would be blasphemy if I didn’t. Not only is he the GOAT, but he’s also one of us, the common people, something that Patriots and TB12 haters often forget. Brady is someone who was plucked from the NFL’s quarterback garbage can (i.e. the sixth round) as the 199th pick in the draft. He was born with none of the physical gifts you’d want in an ideal quarterback such as a rocket arm like Aaron Rodgers or amazing footspeed like Russell Wilson. But for all the talk about his intangibles, his reputation has been hard-earned – good decision making, ice cold veins, quick ball release, unwavering team leadership, deep analytical knowledge, and great playreading instinct. These are things that he has developed over time through dedication to his craft and not from any superhuman abilities that he happened to be born with.

With that said, I will propose one weakness in Brady’s game, something which I hope is proven wrong tomorrow: a slight apathy when his legacy isn’t on the line. What does this mean? We all know that you don’t bet against Tom Brady in the biggest games at the most important times. If everything is on the table and someone needs to step up, Tom Brady will pull through (and 28-3 will forever be a mythical lesson of this in New England sports lore). But I also believe that the inverse is true: that if the situation doesn’t mean everything, Tom Brady is not guaranteed to win the game.

Specifically, I’m saying that if Tom Brady isn’t playing against an elite quarterback in the Super Bowl, he’s not a lock to put in a GOAT-like performance and win. If he plays a good quarterback in the biggest game, Brady is not going to let that guy beat him and have a chance to challenge Brady’s GOAT status on Mt Rushmore. In contrast, if Brady’s playing an irrelevant quarterback for whom it would be a joke to mention both their names in the same discussion about greatest of all time, it’s more likely that Brady will fall just a little short because a loss would be irrelevant to his legacy. As an example, if Tom Brady ever played Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees in the Super Bowl, you can be sure as hell that Brady wouldn’t let either of those guys win. Can you imagine someone saying “remember when TB12 lost to Brees in the Super Bowl?” or “Rodgers outplayed Brady on the ultimate stage and proved he’s the real GOAT.” Given those outcomes, those wouldn’t be unreasonable opinions to have. Therefore, those are situations that Tom Brady would never allow to occur. As another example, if Tom Brady ever played against Blake Bortles in the Super Bowl, no one in their right minds would ever suggest that Bortles is better than Brady, even if Bortles genuinely outplayed Brady to win the game. It may have been a lost opportunity to get a ring, but ultimately Brady’s legacy isn’t dented by a loss to Bortles.

So I know this sounds crazy, but here’s my data from the Super Bowl seasons that Brady’s played in. NOTE: I sort by regular season QBR when possible and substitute with traditional passer rating if QBR is unavailable.

Winning it all

• 2001 vs St Louis Rams: Kurt Warner was the best quarterback in the league on one of the best offensive units ever assembled and Tom Brady was a below average quarterback with something to prove as 14 point underdogs
• 2003 vs Carolina Panthers: We’ll skip on Jake Delhomme but he and Brady still posted similar numbers for the season that year
• 2004 vs Philadelphia Eagles: Donovan McNabb had an amazing season compared to Brady; in fact, it was probably the best season of McNabb’s entire career
• 2014 vs Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson posted similar numbers to Brady (both were in the top 6 in the league) and Seattle had a legendary defense as well as one of the greatest secondaries ever assembled
• 2016 vs Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan went on a tear and was the AP MVP that season; Brady was second to Ryan by a slim margin. In addition, Brady got the opportunity to help orchestrate one of the greatest football comebacks of all time

The victories have all cemented his greatness. 2001 was pulled off against one of the greatest offenses of all time, 2014 was pulled off against one of the greatest defenses of all time, and 2016 was pulled off facing one of the largest deficits of all time.

Falling short

• 2007 vs New York Giants: Eli Manning was an average to below average QB that year
• 2011 vs New York Giants: Eli Manning had a slightly better year but was still only a slightly above average quarterback
• 2017 vs Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Foles was significantly worse than average with a QBR of 34.7; in contrast, Brady had a QBR of 73.2

Look at the losses. All of them are against quarterbacks that have no right to be mentioned in the same sentence with Brady as the GOAT. Eli Manning has will rightfully be considered some time of misshapen Kryptonite for Brady, but his brother has a much better argument in any discussions about legacies of great quarterbacks.

Same thing can be said for Nick Foles. A backup QB may have out-dueled Brady in the biggest game, but you’d be hard-pressed to find anybody that would side with Foles in a debate about greatness.

Final prediction: 27-24 Rams (or a Pats blowout)

This won’t sit well with the rest of the Patriots fanbase but, given that the Brady is facing Jared Goff – a slightly above average quarterback whose career trajectory looks like it will be closer to Eli Manning and Nick Foles than Wilson, Ryan, McNabb, or Warner – I’m going to make a bold prediction that the Patriots just barely lose to the Rams. “Just barely” because if Brady were to lose to the Rams in a blowout, it would be a definite black mark on Brady’s career. Granted, Goff and Brady posted similar numbers for the season. But most people would acknowledge that Brady had a down year while Goff played up. There’s still a considerable gap across when evaluating overall achievement, skill, and legacy between the two (in contrast to Brady vs Mahomes or Brady vs Rivers).

Blowout scenario: 45-21 Patriots

This is what I’m looking for as a fan. There’s a lot of potential for this game to serve justice and pay back karma. The Rams have also been faltering towards the end of the season while the Patriots are just getting hot. Here’s to a blowout and being proven wrong about my silly Brady quarterbacking legacy theory.